It always drives me nuts when ESPN, Fox sports and local talk shows fall into the trap of "trending" NFL teams after just one or 2 games-what the hell can you tell about a team after it plays only one or 2 opponents?
Anyway, I have always believe that, in football, trends about teams don't fully develop until all teams have played at least 4 games. And, with the first bye week having come early this year, now that each team has played 4 games, we can, in my opinion, justifiably look at who's who what's what in the NFL...
Preseason predictions
Like all wanna be pundits, I made several predictions at the start of the season (you can see the post here http://wordofmouthonsportsbyryanryles.blogspot.com/2010/09/lions-and-2010-nfl-season.html). And, perhaps better than most, many of my predictions have come true: the NFC East is a mediocre at best; the Colts and Viqueens are showing their age at key positions which makes them at best 500 clubs; and Atlanta looks to be primed to overtake the Saints as the "cream of the crop" in the NFC south.
Where I have been wrong so far is: the Patriots (I'm glad about that one, since they are my 2nd team); the 49ers (I should have never jumped on that bandwagon); the Packers (what is up with that?); and my Lions (I'll get to them separately).
What we can tell so far
From my perspective, this year, so far, has become exactly what I thought it would become over the summer: a year of parody beginning a period of transition in the NFL from the players who dominated the last 10 years, to the players who will dominate the next 10.
Let's be honest, the "shelf life" of players at most positions in the NFL isn't very long. Running backs, for example, on average, only survive 3 to 4 years at the NFL level. Over the last decade non quarterback all pro's like Jeff Saturday, Julius Peppers, Ladian Tomlinson, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Ray Lewis, etc, etc. have, well...gotten old, by NFL standards. All of the aforementioned players still play, and still play at a relatively high level, but all look slow compared to their younger counterparts. The perfect example was this past MNF between the Jets and the Viqueens: Moss, back in Minny, was being covered one on one by Cromartie-a man 2 inches shorter, but almost 10 years younger than Moss. Moss, failed to get any separation from Cromartie, and everyone remembers the 2 games last year he spent on "Rivas Island". These were things we had never seen from Moss in years past-his fortay had always been his ability to separate himself from DB's when going deep down field.
The reason why he couldn't is simple-Moss is old (by NFL standards).
Jeff Saturday, the perennial all pro center on Indianapolis, is another example. He rarely, if ever, allowed any pressure on Peyton, but this year, he gives it up on most plays-he is old.
In sum, the generation of players we have watched dominate the league over the last decade have had their day in the sun, and they are being pushed aside by a younger, faster, more athletic set. The old guys are just refusing to go quietly into the sunset and the result, at least for this year, will be parody-because the old guys still have some game, just not the continuously dominate game they used to have...
Mid season moves
Only one move, so far, this year has caught anybody's attention: the trade of Randy Moss from the Patriots back to the Minnesota Viqueens.
Everyone and their unborn grandkids called this the blockbuster move that "guarantees" Minnesota a Superbowl birth-are you kidding? Seriously, what drugs are all these people taking? How do they figure an old reciever player for an older quarterback translates to a Superbowl birth just because they used to be dominant?
I digress...The problem all these pundits have/had was they were living on the actions of the past. There was a reason why Bellichick and his Offensive Coordinator weren't drawing up plays for Moss anymore-he is slower than he used to be, and, as such, is better used as a decoy.
The proof that this was a better move for the Patriots than the Viqueens was witnessed last night-true, Moss how much impact could Moss have after only 4 days to prepare with them, but, despite 2 important catches in the 2nd half, his presence really didn't mean jack shit to the overall outcome of that game: Minnesota is still old at all but the Running Back position, and the Jets are still younger, faster and better, at every position on the field (compared to Minnesota, which is, again, this years favorite to represent the NFC in the Superbowl).
The amazing thing about that trade is that New England, as of yesterday, now has 2 picks in each of the first 4 rounds of next years draft-hooooooolllllly shit...
My Lions
Of course, I have to spend a little time on my Lions.
The homer in me said they would be 8-8 this year, but the professional sports writer was a little more laid back and said 7-9, no worse than a good 6-10 (if there is such a thing)...
As of now, they are 1-4, but they are the best freaking 1-4 team I've ever seen.
How the heck was I supposed to know that Stafford would go down by the end of the first half of their first game this year and be out for 6 weeks? If he hadn't my home team would be no worse than 2-3, and most likely 3-2, and would be well on their way to achieving that homer 8-8 prediction of mine this year. As it stands, they look better-on a game by game basis anyway-than even I thought they would, and, as a result, they still might actually make that 7-9 or 8-8 mark if they can scrape a win this weekend against the Now Weak Giants...
You gotta love football!
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